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The MOAB Keeps Growing, and Growing

Thu, 20 Nov 2008 01:42:18 +0000

Last Winter, when I first started writing about the Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB), I predicted that the cost of the bailout would grow inexorably. Sadly, I was all too right. In fact, the scope of the MOAB is now much larger than I had predicted, early in 2008. The latest tally thusfar is an almost incomprehensible $4.28 trillion US Dollars.

But wait, it gets worse. In addition to bailing out bankers and insurance companies, more and more entities from outside the financial sector are lining up to the Federal trough. The TARP bailout set a dangerous precedent. There is now a big queue forming. It is the "economic victims" queue. It is a growing line of highly-paid whiners with sob stories. Here are some examples:

Lets start with the "Big Three" Detroit automobile manufacturers (Chrysler, Ford, and GM.) Consider these three articles: Detroit automakers are begging for a big chunk and What Will Happen if the US Auto Industry Fails? and GM Bailout Will Be Agony for Taxpayers.

Now, on to the airlines. We've already been warned that as many as 30 Airlines will go broke this year. I predict that passenger airlines in the US will be next to get a big bailout. And if the Pentagon gets its way, many of those carriers deemed "too big to fail" will be those that have a large number of planes in the US Air Force CRAF fleet. Nearly everyone, it seems, has a vested interest of some sort in the MOAB.

Insurance giant AIG is getting not one but two bailouts. The latest increment announced will be $40 billion. When will this end? I suspect that lots of other big insurance firms will be lining up for their "fair share" of the dough.

Here is a real stinker: Billions of US taxpayer dollars will probably be used to bail out foreign investors. Uncle Ben Bernanke must have warned: "We mustn't offend our creditors..."

The States - Some 29 of the 50 states are reporting budget crises. Lo an behold, most of the hardest hit states are those with bloated Nanny State bureaucracies. No surprise there. The states that had the worst fiscal management, of course, will get the biggest share of the taxpayer funds. Those that were fiscally conservative will get nothing.

Municipalities - The Wall Street Journal reports: Cash Strapped U.S. Cities Seek Emergency Bailouts

What will be "the next shoe to drop"? I suspect that it will be some of the the larger public employee pension funds, such as CalPERS. Not only have they made some spectacularly bad stock investments, but many of them have also been playing contrapreneur in real estate investments (such as REITs) and have even dabbled in derivatives, such as CDO paper. Here, perhaps, is an early warning flag: Florida pension fund loses a quarter its value.

Another likely recipient of a reserved spot at the feeding trough will be "critical industries" in defense, bulk fuel, transportation, and telecommunications. If any of these approach a crisis; we'll surely be warned, "there could be dire consequences..." Can you see how far this slippery slope extends, folks?

The Growing Queue of Beggars

Mark my words: The queue of banking, corporate, and government beggars will continue to grow. Once organizations see how easy it is to get dump truck loads of cash from Uncle Hank, many more sectors will join the queue. The American taxpayers will be thoroughly fleeced.

As I've noted before, these trillions of dollars must come from somewhere. Clearly, revenue from taxes, tariffs, and borrowing will not be sufficient. This leaves only monetization--the magical creation dollars out of thin air--as a solution. Experience has shown that monetization is highly inflationary.

The bottom line: Be prepared for a MOAB that will balloon, and then amazingly balloon still larger, in an orgy of bailout beneficence that is unprecedented in human history. Following on its heels will surely come consumer price inflation. The coming decade of economic depression will be marked by inflation will make the stagflation of the 1970s seem mild, by comparison. What I've outlined here is just about inevitable. William H. Macy, as "The Shoveler" in the movie Mystery Men said it nicely: "We've got a blind date with Destiny -- and it looks like she's ordered the lobster."

[via http://www.survivalblog.com/ @ November 20, 2008 @ 1:42am]

Letter Re: Finding Abandoned Properties, Post-TEOTWAWKI?

Thu, 20 Nov 2008 01:40:30 +0000

Dear Mr. Rawles,

I recently became a fan of your blog and wanted to commend you for your work in educating the masses. While I don't have a retreat, I'm using a different strategy and hope for your input. I live in western Maryland. Historically we are fairly disaster-proof from natural disasters enjoy all four seasons. My plan is to prepare (as best we can here) and after a disaster, claim a better vacant property.

Two other thoughts: I recently purchased David Blume's book "Alcohol Can Be a Gas" and intend to fuel my own flex fuel vehicles and have a barter tool. Secondly, I'm trying to rig some way to attach a bicycle to a generator and store energy and provide exercise for my family - Thanks, Mark W.

JWR Replies: I regularly get e-mails like yours, mostly from preppers on tight budgets that have hopes of finding "abandoned" properties. It would take an incredible "worst case" situation with massive de-population before properties would be totally abandoned. A vacant property still has an owner--or at least has heirs of a deceased owner. And unless government totally disappears in some anarchic spasm (which is highly unlikely outside the Horn of Africa), there would still be due process and the normal legalities of properties being seized for property tax delinquency, and then being sold at auction to the highest bidder. Science fiction novelist Robert A. Heinlein said it best: There ain't no such thing as a free lunch (TANSTAAFL).

I recommend that you plan more realistically. You can prepare on a modest budget by teaming up with like-minded people in your area and buying contiguous parcels in a covenant community to provide a local bartering base and mutual security. Abandoned properties are more the stuff of daydreams than reality. But given the continuing collapse of the United States real estate market, who knows? There may be some very inexpensive foreclosed or even tax delinquent parcels available at auction in rural areas in just a couple of years.

There are several brand of bike generator stands on the market, including the U-Gen.

[via http://www.survivalblog.com/ @ November 20, 2008 @ 1:40am]

Letter Re: UCLA's Eye-Opening Colloquium on the Worldwide Financial and Economic Crisis

Thu, 20 Nov 2008 01:38:54 +0000

Hi Jim,
I'm responding to Tuesday's article Letter Re: UCLA's Eye-Opening Colloquium on the Worldwide Financial and Economic Crisis in which the general cause of the crisis was ascribed to too much economic freedom. The following articles make the opposite case, that it was actually caused by government interference in the markets:

The Government Did It

The Myth that Laissez Faire Is Responsible for Our Financial Crisis

Alan Greenspan vs. Ayn Rand and Freedom

Stable Money is the Key to Recovery

As pointed out in the article Stable Money is the Key to Recovery, "...some three-quarters of the massive derivatives market, which has wreaked the most havoc across global financial markets, derives its investment allure from the capricious monetary policies of central banks and the chaotic movements of currencies."
Best Regards, - Tim L

[via http://www.survivalblog.com/ @ November 20, 2008 @ 1:38am]

Letter Re: UCLA's Eye-Opening Colloquium on the Worldwide Financial and Economic Crisis

Wed, 19 Nov 2008 00:58:50 +0000

Hi,
Yesterday [Friday. November 14, 2008] I attended the Marschak Colloquium on Mathematics in the Behavioral Sciences at UCLA {University of California, Los Angeles] . This thing is attended by lots of UCLA and USC [University of Southern California] economics professors, including many retired faculty members and other local luminaries. (Two seats to my right was author Alvin Toffler of "Future Shock" fame.) The main speakers presented for an hour, and then the whole group asked questions and discussed the topic. Here is the brief abstract that announced the talk: "The current worldwide financial and economic crisis is the greatest economic challenge we have faced since the Great Depression. The two speakers will treat the crisis in the light of historical experience, will identify some of its causes, and will consider possible policy initiatives at the national and international level to treat it."

The topic was "The Current Worldwide Financial and Economic Crisis." I expected it to be an interesting, balanced, reasoned and academic view of the current bumps in the road, with some modest suggestions for improving matters. Wow! It was all very reasoned, and there was even a little bit of mathematical modeling, but these people are very very concerned! The immense set of interlocking derivative bets made by the big banks is now acknowledged as a complete house of cards, and one that is currently collapsing! (The second speaker made suggestions about policy moves that could be taken "if officials somehow miraculously stop the process in mid-collapse.")

The whole two hours was fascinating, but here are a few of the ideas and comments that I came away with:
• This is the first global crisis of the globalized world. Likely every country will be affected and all at about the same time. (Very different from [the economic crisis of] 1929-1937.)
• The causes were many: lax regulation, lax credit reviews by rating agencies, securitization of mortgages, insane(!) investment leverage, pressure for continuously increasing financial profits, herd behavior, deregulation, ....
• Many financial institutions would be immediately bankrupt if the were forced to value assets at current market prices. (Instead, everyone has agreed to claim that "certain markets are frozen." The regulators wink.)
• Deleveraging is essential to the survival of these institutions. But most deleveraging actions actually lower all institutions' capital bases. So it's a self-reinforcing positive feedback cycle. Serious deflation is a genuinely possible outcome. For the first time in our lives, money could become more valuable over time, rather than less.
• On the other hand, most Latin American currency crises began as fiscal crises. Government frantically created money to prevent deflation, and eventually they got hyperinflation. This, too, could happen here.
• A former vice president of Citicorp was in the audience. He said that the explosion in derivative instruments ran far ahead of infrastructure (markets for trading them, etc.) and far ahead of legal frameworks. He said we haven't even seen the beginning of the counterparty problem.
• An economist from USC in the audience said that we will soon have huge, massive unemployment in the U.S.
• What will happen next (even what could happen next) is unknown. A Swedish economist in attendance said: "Dispense with the illusion that you understand what is happening."

It was a very interesting couple of hours. - M.D.I. (by way of SurvivalBlog readers Bill and Charley.)

[via http://www.survivalblog.com/ @ November 19, 2008 @ 12:58am]

Letter Re: Where to Find the Funds for Your Preparations

Wed, 19 Nov 2008 00:51:35 +0000

Dear Jim,
So many people are struggling to find ways to make ends meet, much less have any extra money to make purchases for their preparedness plan.
There are a lot of things people can do within their own means.

1. Make a budget. Income minus expenses. Is there anything left over? You are ahead of the game. If not, now is the time to:
2. Trim the budget. Distinguish needs versus wants. Eliminate anything that is not needed.
3. If after trimming the budget, you still cannot find extra money, get a second job, have a yard sale, etc. www.daveramsey.com is a great site for
learning how to eliminate debt.

Some things that have worked for us:
We turned up the thermostat in the summer and used a fan to circulate the air, started hanging clothes out instead of using the dryer, unplugged all electrical cords that were not in use, [each of us] used the same drinking glass instead of getting another, and shortened our allowed shower time. (With three teenagers in the house, we struck gold with that one.) We turned all computers off at night. Our power bill was reduced just over $100 per month by making these changes.

We eliminated the cable television. That saved $70.

We started clipping coupons again. I have saved nearly $200 a month on our grocery bill. CouponMom.com is an awesome site.

I also milk our goats. I will not pay $4.00 a gallon per day at the store.

Instead of spending a lot on pre-packed snacks for the kids, I am baking a lot more.

We cook outside a lot. On Sunday, we grill and smoke chicken, sausage, hamburgers, hot dogs and goat meat. We then use this meat in whatever recipe we want to use for the week. Some of it is then frozen for the latter part of the week.

I make up a few batches of goat cheese to go with my husband's homemade pita bread.

We have a garden in the summer and we can what isn't eaten fresh . Even if you live in the city, you can still have a tomato plant or a bell pepper plant etc. You can purchase a grow light at Wal-Mart.

We have consolidated our trips into town, instead of going whenever we want to. This has saved at least $40 a month.
There are so many ways to stop wasting money.

Okay, some women really will think TEOTWAWKI with this one: Buy your clothes second hand. I am not ashamed to accept hand me downs from friends. My children have all worn clothes given to them from other family members. I also shop at Goodwill [thrift stores] or go to Yard Sales.

Start a business. I am a stay at home Mom with five children. We have nearly four acres that we live on and have access to 20 acres next door and that we run our 40 head of Boer goats on. We have chickens and rabbits. I also breed and train German Shepherds and board dogs. With my husband's income and the extra attention to detail, we do pretty well. The changes that we have made has allowed us to purchase the needed extras.

Thanks for the wealth of knowledge that you share with us every day! - RH in Alabama

[via http://www.survivalblog.com/ @ November 19, 2008 @ 12:51am]

Two Letters Re: Procuring Reliable Workhorse Bikes -- Take Advantage of the Single Speed Fad

Wed, 19 Nov 2008 00:49:40 +0000

James
I am a daily multi-modal commuter taking an armored bus into Jerusalem and then cycling from the bus station to my kollel. Before my move to Israel, I only drove my 4x4 truck several times a month and did about 50-to-70 miles a week by pedal power. I did once try using Slime in my tubes but this makes for a difficult ride, wasting immense amounts of effort due to the natural imbalance of slimed tires. I also found that it is also impossible to patch slimed tires. My advice is to get a good tire like the Kevlar Schwalbe Marathon tire, although some may not want the reflective paint on this tire for OPSEC, I have also had good use from the Specialized brand CrossRoads mountain/road tire. Unless the cycle rider is planning to go 100% soft road it is better to occasionally walk the bike and gain the efficiency of a smooth roll center strip.

Since most of us are not equestrian experts and since animals can be such a danger especially if regular medical care is unavailable, a bicycle should be part of nearly every persons preparation purchases right after a basic defensive firearm, camping gear, and several months of backup food and a way to cook it. I also suggest every reader find a mechanic that they can trust at a local bicycle shop who can help evaluate any potential purchases so you don't buy used or new junk which will sit in the garage attracting rust and often teach you to fix the problems, he will also help you collect the tools and parts needed to keep it running even if he is not there. Your bicycle is the most efficient form of powered transport known to man so you will easily feel any inefficiencies when pedaling up a big hill, this is probably your future daily means of transport, don't sell yourself short. See also Sheldon Brown for how to work on a bicycle and Crazy Guy on a Bike for cycle camping and long tours. - David in Israel (SurvivalBlog's Correspondent in Israel)

Mr. Rawles -
I noticed your recommendation to use extra-thick inner tubes and Slime for tires on survival bicycles. Excellent advice, but may I suggest an alternative I have used on my bicycles -- air free tires. There are alternative suppliers as well but these have worked well for me. The tires use solid, dense polyurethane and are offered with varying densities/elasticities to match various tire PSI ratings. One caveat is that they are a bear to get on the rim, and you'll likely have to re-true the rim once on.

Since I live in a very cactus-infested part of Arizona, these have been a blessing. I've even picked up nails without any problems (other than having to stop and pull them out with a Leatherman tool .)

I love the blog. I've been a reader of yours for years, in the far distant past from the misc.survivalism [Usenet] newsgroup [in the late 1980s and early 1990s].
Regards, - "Harmless Fuzzy Bunny"

[via http://www.survivalblog.com/ @ November 19, 2008 @ 12:49am]

Stereo-Typing The Sun!

Tue, 18 Nov 2008 21:53:34 +0000

STEREO (Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory) is the third mission in NASA’s Solar Terrestrial Probes program (STP). This two-year mission was launched October 2006 with teh goal of providing a unique and revolutionary view of the Sun-Earth System. The two nearly identical observatories - one ahead of Earth in its orbit, the other trailing behind - [...] [via http://www.2012finalfantasy.com/ @ November 18, 2008 @ 9:53pm]

Trailer Lazy: 2012

Tue, 18 Nov 2008 13:25:52 +0000

Here’s a teaser trailer (you might want to let it load before you look at it). Go on . . . do as the trailer commands. Google 2012 … I’ll wait [sound of humming in the background] . . . Now. Can you say viral marketing? It all has something to do with the Mayan calendar, which predicts the end of the world on December 21, 2012. I especially like the following quote, that comes from an article you get when you actually Google “2012″: So what will happen on Dec. 21, 2012? It’s likely tha [via http://technorati.com/search/2012+mayan @ November 18, 2008 @ 1:25pm]

Propaganda is making the Truth Movement Totally Irrelevant

Tue, 18 Nov 2008 11:27:18 +0000

There are innumerable propaganda campaigns being launched within what has become known as the Truth Movement. I would like to discuss a few of the most prominent aspects of these campaigns, in the hopes of helping folks weed through some of the disinformation. We are going to have to understand the true nature of what we are dealing with if we are ever going be able to make an effective stand against it. With the popularization of the internet and the monumental increase in the accessibility [via http://technorati.com/search/2012+mayan @ November 18, 2008 @ 11:27am]

Letter Re: Seeking Advice on Rainwater Catchment and Filtration

Tue, 18 Nov 2008 02:08:23 +0000

Mr. Rawles:
When constructing a rain-catch such as this one, which the good folks at Lowe's [--a major hardware store chain in the US--] suggest for economically watering your garden, is there any instance where it would be okay to use this as a backup for drinking water?

Obviously, one would be foolish to drink directly from containers that are not food-grade or if the water has been sitting for too long a time. But, my question is does that change if you plan on running the water through a purifying process such as through a Berky or this economically priced alternative.

It looks like these filters might not last as long as the Berky filters, but are quite a bit cheaper and have a higher flow rate (this is what I was told - YMMV). A representative of the manufacturer claims to train the "second largest disaster relief organization in the world" who "use this filter exclusively" and that it is used by missionaries in 38 countries around the globe. I was also told that it was nominated for a World Health Humanitarian Award for 2008. Also, it supposedly outperformed the Berky in a trial run by Johns Hopkins University, but I have been unable to verify that claim. I can verify that Johns Hopkins University did give it a passing grade; as did the National Sanitation Foundation (NSF) under Standards 42 and 53, AEL Laboratories, Analytical Food Laboratories, British 5750 Quality Standard, and England’s Water Research Council standard.

So, my two questions are:

1.) Is it safe to drink rainwater caught in a non food-grade vessel, provided you filter it through a sub-micron apparatus first?

2.) What are your thoughts on the aforementioned filter? Thanks, - J.S.C.

JWR Replies: In answer to your questions: Rainwater catchment for domestic water is very popular in Hawaii. There, most families do little more than use a sediment filter and bulk chlorination. You should of course never re-use something like a fuel tank or a toxic chemical tank for a water barrel. As I explained previously in SurvivalBlog, the issue with "non-food grade": HDPE plastic buckets and barrels is that some of them are manufactured using toxic injection molding release compounds. Whether or not a ceramic water filter would remove any such trace chemicals goes beyond my expertise. Perhaps a chemist or a water quality specialist amongst the SurvivalBlog readership could enlighten us.

We have a Big Berky here at the ranch, and love it. The two-bucket ceramic filter that you mentioned is remarkably similar to the improvised Berky clone that I detailed in a SurvivalBlog post back in May. Both their design and mine have similar cost, similar do-it-yourself labor requirements, and they will process a comparable volume of water. This isn't like comparing "apples to oranges". It is more like comparing Bartlett Pears to D'Anjou Pears.

[via http://www.survivalblog.com/ @ November 18, 2008 @ 2:08am]

Letter Re: Seeking Advice on a Self Defense Handgun Purchase

Tue, 18 Nov 2008 02:06:59 +0000

Hi Jim,

I do not have a handgun presently but want to get one. If you were only going to buy one handgun for self defense what would it be?
God Bless, - Greg O.

JWR Replies: Presently, I'd recommend getting either a Glock M21-SF .45 ACP or a Springfield Armory XD .45 ACP. Go for a full size model unless you plan to carry your pistol concealed extensively. If that is the case then get a Glock Model 30 (commonly called a "Mini Glock") or an XD Compact .45. Given the currently frantic market for full capacity magazines in the US, be sure to buy at least six spare magazines immediately. (In fact, preferably before you buy the gun itself, just to be sure. Yes, the supplies of magazines are drying up that quickly!)

Some important notes on magazine compatibility: With a few exceptions, magazines are generally brand and model specific. With most brands of handguns, full size magazines will fit in the compact models as spares, but not vice versa. To provide a few extra rounds, I recommend that all of the spares that you carry should be full size magazines.

If you get a "-SF" (Small Frame) variant Glock, they can only accept the more recent production "SF" Glock magazines with the retention notch cut in the front. Older ("pre-SF") Glocks can accept either early or late generation magazines.

BTW, I highly recommend Front Sight's Gun & Gear & Training offer--which includes an essentially free XD pistol, holster, belt, a spare magazine, and a magazine pouch.

[via http://www.survivalblog.com/ @ November 18, 2008 @ 2:06am]

Letter Re: Peakniks Need Better OPSEC

Tue, 18 Nov 2008 02:05:23 +0000

James,

Regarding those who gave their street addresses in the Peak Oil article that was recently mentioned: Indeed, it boggles the mind when people appear to have absolutely no concept of OPSEC. It betrays a mind that apparently has little or knowledge of the human animal, which the substitute for which must necessarily be a fantasy of some sort.

If giving your address isn't enough, how about these folks providing a full set of downloadable tactical maps for your retreat?

Understandably they're running an operation that provides for open visitation, for which the cartoon of the hippie village layout would suffice, but the topographical map?! Let's make it real easy for some anti-social element who also happens to be "TEOTWAWKI-aware" to book mark your little world for a later date. (Shakes head in disgust.) - Mosby

[via http://www.survivalblog.com/ @ November 18, 2008 @ 2:05am]

Letter Re: Procuring Reliable Workhorse Bikes -- Take Advantage of the Single Speed Fad

Tue, 18 Nov 2008 02:04:22 +0000

Jim,
Due to a current fad in single-speed bicycles, mountain bikes are re-selling very inexpensively. Used, [15-speed] mountain bikes for around $200 for what had been $1,200 bicycles, on average. With smooth tires, puncture sealing inner-tubes, lights, fenders, and a rack or basket, this can haul groceries or get you to work in the event of a temporary fuel shortage such as we just experienced in the Southeast a month ago. No gas in Nashville, indeed! Not a perfect solution, but better than losing your job for lack of trying. Get into cycling, once a week, so you can learn how to maintain a bike, develop the skill and muscles to do so, and figure out the good accessories versus the trash. Like with camping, there's a lot of useless dross out there, and a fair bit of gold once you figure out what works. $200 + $200 in accessories = commuter bicycle. Or buy one special-made if you prefer. Still, a commuter bike in the garage, ridden weekly, is better than getting on a waiting list when the fuel runs out. Just because its $54 per barrel now doesn't mean it won't zoom back to $145 per barrel once the new President says or does something stupid in the Middle East.

Some background on the one speed fad: I think the single-speed bikes became popular in Portland first, though it might have started in San Francisco with the Bike Messengers 10 years ago, its only just caught on in Pleasanton, California, Davis, California, and the rest of the bike-riding elite-areas. I love my mountain bike, but its so fast on slick tires. Cheap mountain bikes with slick tires are a modification that was inspired by converting dirt bike motorcycles to street racers, called "motards", using slick tires. This works well and has lots of torque. Recommended for users with cruddy roads since they have 6-8 inches of wheel travel for potholes and require less gear shifting than a Ninja 250R or Suzuki TU250. Best, - Inyokern

JWR Replies: That is great advice. OBTW, I recommend retrofitting any "workhorse" type bicycles with extra-thick inner tubes, and then "Sliming" them. This provides tires that are nigh-on impervious to typical puncture flat tires. Used, low-mileage mountain bikes can often be found on Craig's List for a just a fraction of what they sell for in bike shops.

[via http://www.survivalblog.com/ @ November 18, 2008 @ 2:04am]

Freezing Heat!

Mon, 17 Nov 2008 13:02:37 +0000

What in the world is freezing heat? It’s the Al Gore Global Warming syndrome. It’s mankind getting caught up in its bias and prejudice about what we WANT to see happen that we’re blind to what is really happening. We don’t WANT any of the catastrophies projected about 2012 so we find reasons they won’t, [...] [via http://www.2012finalfantasy.com/ @ November 17, 2008 @ 1:02pm]

12 Thoughts On The Economy In 2012…

Mon, 17 Nov 2008 12:59:27 +0000

As we near the end of the week when IDE editors offer you predictions – and actionable ideas – on the next four years, here are a handful of my thoughts on the world of 2012… assuming, that is, the Mayan thing with 2012 doesn’t come true… something about 12-21-12. 1) Back in 2008, the sky may have been dark, but those who reached for it are 2012’s biggest winners. They were the people who kept feeding their retirement plans and investment accounts… these were people who understand that fear, l [via http://technorati.com/search/2012+mayan @ November 17, 2008 @ 12:59pm]

The 6th Day Galactic Underworld Aquarian Initiation, the Fool, Morgan Freeman

Sun, 16 Nov 2008 15:46:52 +0000

” there are symptoms of psychic changes that always appear at the end of one Platonic Month and at the beginning of another”- C.Jung Sunday, November 16, 2008 The 6th Day Galactic Underworld Aquarian Initiation Mayan 12.5.15.15. Gregorian: 11/16/2008 Jewish-Masonic: 2/18/5769 from http://www.sipp.org I have recently come across some intruiging information concerning the Mayan Calendar and its time cycles in relation to the evolution of consciousness. Previous [via http://technorati.com/search/2012+mayan @ November 16, 2008 @ 3:46pm]

All Humanity Will Perish on This Mayan Calendar Date

Sun, 16 Nov 2008 11:05:00 +0000

So Teach English in Mexico – Soon Did you know that according to the Mayan Calendar there is a 2,000 year old prophecy that predicts all humanity will perish on December 21st in 2012? So, If you’re planning to visit, vacation, live or Teach English in Mexico, you’d better get hopping! ‘Cause time’s a wastin’ … there’s only three years and two months to go for humankind! Step Back in Time in the Yucatan and Watch as … The first rays of the sun reach across the shimmering cobalt seas of the Caribb [via http://technorati.com/search/2012+mayan @ November 16, 2008 @ 11:05am]

New 2012 Movie Trailer Hits The Net

Sun, 16 Nov 2008 07:43:29 +0000

New 2012 Movie Trailer Hits The Net November 16th, 2008 Columbia Pictures recently released this brand new movie trailer from the upcoming film “2012″ by director Roland Emmerich (All Quiet on the Western Front, Fantastic Voyage) and starring Thandie Newton (W.), John Cusack (Stopping Power, 1408), Amanda Peet and Danny Glover as President Wilson. Synopsis: With the Mayan calendar ending in 2012, a large group of people must deal with natural disasters such as volcanic eruptions, typhoons [via http://technorati.com/search/2012+mayan @ November 16, 2008 @ 7:43am]

Movie Poster: 2012

Sun, 16 Nov 2008 07:19:07 +0000

Many believe that the world will end in 2012. That is when the Mayan calendar comes to an end. In this new movie from Columbia Pictures, 2012, a family will deal with this myth while they on their vacation. This poster from the movie is basic and simple, but that is all we really need. So many posters are flashy and show too much. Just last month, The Ugly Truth came out with a poster that didn’t even show any of the movies stars. This poster does the very same, and it works. 2012 is set for r [via http://technorati.com/search/2012+mayan @ November 16, 2008 @ 7:19am]

Saturday Late Night Open Thread

Sun, 16 Nov 2008 06:09:32 +0000

Didja know the Mayan calendar ends in 2012? Filed under: General [via http://technorati.com/search/2012+mayan @ November 16, 2008 @ 6:09am]

Letter Re: Should We Currently Emphasize Storage Food or Gun Purchases?

Sun, 16 Nov 2008 05:50:04 +0000

Hello Jim,
I've finished reading your fine novel "Patriots" several weeks ago, and have passed it on to another like-minded individual. I've also been scouring your web site daily for the last several months, and gleaning extremely valuable information not only from you, but the many fine individuals who add excellent links to current events. I have forwarded your link to others, and have it saved as "required reading" daily.

A brief background on our family; I had been one of the Y2K aficionados, and had lived on the Big Island for many years. If it were still just my wife and myself, we would probably still be there. But having children changes everything. I became involved in politics there as a fund raising chairman for a twice successful Republican, who was seated in the State house on Oahu, hoping that we could make a difference. But after 10 years there, (and the birth of our first daughter), I determined it was time to relocate back to the mainland. China had also recently bracketed Taiwan, and expressed they could now hit Los Angeles with their now-successful missile launches. (Thanks to Loral Corporation and Bill Clinton). If the balloon ever goes up, I fear that Hawaii will be in deep kim chi.

I had done extensive research from Kona on the best place to settle on the mainland. We had traveled to the mainland numerous times, and visited all of the locations I deemed appropriate. We looked at Prescott, Arizona in the southern extreme, Grand Junction and Estes Park in Colorado, Mazama, Twisp, and Sequim, Washington (in the rain shadow of the Olympic Peninsula), Driggs, Idaho, Whitefish and Missoula, Montana, along with several others. I had multiple criteria as determining factors, such as growing season/weather, local political mentality, and economic vitality. After visiting everyone of these places, I had decided southern Oregon was an area that could conceivably weather both a nuclear exchange and long term social upheaval. I did not believe it was practical to "bug out" to a retreat locale, but would be "bugging home" from a business trip in any "event". We learned in the restaurant business that there are three things important for a successful endeavor, and those are "location, location, location". I have second -guessed my decision many times, but have sent a tap root down with the kids in school. So I would advise your readers to seriously consider their location, and to relocate to a desirable community, as I feel time is short.

With that segue Jim, I have a question for you, and would seek your council. I have a dreaded sense of foreboding with the recent election results, as I'm sure many of your readers do. After Y2K, my preparations for long term unrest had lapsed, and I feel into a state of complacency. I have slowly accumulated a fair number of firearms to protect my family over the years, and have acquired a couple of thousand rounds for each main battle rifle. The additional magazines have arrived in the mail, (thanks for that great link to CDNN by the way), and I feel I'm somewhat prepared in this regard. If only I could convince my wife to shoot.

At any rate, my question is this: I don't know if I should head to the local gun show today, or to the local store for sustenance for the family. I feel that if we are to buy ammo/firearms, it must be now, as Barack Obama could make us all felons with the stroke of a pen. All he has to do is to sign a treaty with the U.N., or file an Executive Order. So what should we do, buy guns/ammo, or additional food?

BTW, I continue to pray for the swift and complete recovery of The Memsahib. God Bless. - Steve in SW Oregon

JWR Replies: First, do not neglect buying storage food for your family. But in my opinion the outcome of the recent presidential and congressional election dictates putting a higher priority on guns and accessories for the next few months. We are living in exceptional times, and that calls for temporarily re-sequencing our priorities.

If your State law law allows it, then buy your guns from private parties--not Federal Firearms License (FFL) holding dealers. Private party sales of modern (1899 and later) guns across state lines (in "interstate commerce" ) are banned under Federal law, but intrastate sales are still legal in most states. (Be sure to consult your state and local laws!)

Buying a gun through a licensed dealer leaves a prominent and permanent paper trail. Here are some relatively low profile alternatives:

Private party (non-FFL) sellers that are fellow Citizens of your State, at gun shows in your State.

Private party (non-FFL) sellers that are fellow Citizens of your State, advertising in newspaper ads.

Estate sales, garage sales, and farm auctions operated by private party (non-FFL) sellers that are fellow Citizens of your State.

Private party (non-FFL) sellers that are fellow Citizens of your State advertising at GunBroker.com (Use the "Smart Search" feature, and select "USA only - State where item is located")

Private party (non-FFL) sellers that are fellow Citizens of your State advertising at GunsAmerica.com (Use the "Advanced Search" feature, and "LIMIT TO STATE". You can also select a check box to exclude guns that were listed by FFL holders.)

Pre-1899-manufactured "antique" guns chambered for modern cartridges, either in-state or out of state. (No FFL is required for Federally-exempt antiques. See my Antique Guns FAQ for details. Again, your State and local laws may vary, so do your homework.)

One of president-elect Obama's publicly stated goals is to "close the gun show loophole." Clearly he wants to end private paperwork-free firearms purchases. This leaves us just a brief window of of opportunity to stock up what may need to be a decades-long supply. Be sure to buy plenty of full capacity magazines, since it is very likely that there will be an import ban (via executive order) soon after BHO comes to office, and a domestic production ban (via an act of Congress), soon after that. These bans will freeze the numbers of "grandfathered" magazines in private hands and will likely triple the market price of all magazines of 11+ round capacity.) Buy plenty of extras for barter--even for models that you don't own, but that will likely be in high demand. There may come a day when owners won't be willing part with magazines for anything but astronomical prices, but they'll probably still be willing to barter on a rational; "value for like value" basis.

Put an emphasis on gun and full capacity magazine purchases for the next three months, followed by some extensive ammunition purchases soon after the presidential inauguration.

[via http://www.survivalblog.com/ @ November 16, 2008 @ 5:50am]

Letter Re: Michigan's Upper Peninsula as a Retreat Locale

Sun, 16 Nov 2008 05:47:32 +0000

Hello James:
A recent letter from a reader mentioned that he was looking for a retreat. If I remember correctly, that person lived in the Washington D.C. area. You had suggested Tennessee and Michigan's Upper Peninsula (UP) as retreat possibilities.One disadvantage of Michigan's UP for that particular reader is that to get to the UP, they will have to drive through, or very close to, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Toledo, Detroit, and Saginaw.

The Old Uooper was on-target regarding the challenges of living in many places in the UP both microclimate and soil are key factors. My personal choice would be to live within 20 miles of Lake Michigan or Lake Huron. There, soils are limestone-based and it truly is the Banana Belt. - Joe H.

JWR Replies: Actually, that particular reader lives in New Jersey, and commutes daily to New York City. But the issue that you raise is still quite valid. So much of the eastern US is urbanized that it will make any planned "11th Hour" travel during a crisis a dicey proposition. As I've written many times, I highly recommend permanently relocating to one of the the more fertile regions of the Intermountain West. (See my Recommended Retreat Locales web page for some general recommendations, and my book "Rawles On Retreats and Relocation" for even greater detail, with instructive maps.) I realize that that because of work and family commitments, this is not practical for most preppers that currently live in the east. For those of you that decide to stay where you are, I recommend that you watch the news closely and be ready to bug out on very short notice. You need to be already on the road to your retreat while everyone else is still glued to their televisions, sizing up the situation. This way you can Get Out of Dodge ahead of the Golden Horde. If you hesitate you will end up in a monumental traffic jam. This necessitates having a well-stocked retreat--so that you don't have to waste any time packing. Also, be sure to do a detailed study of secondary road routes to your retreat--avoiding all freeways and most highways. A lot of the old ""farm to market" routes are ideal. Practice driving those routes, both day and night. A well-prepared family always has a Plan B and Plan C. One of these plans should address a situation where you must hunker down at home.

[via http://www.survivalblog.com/ @ November 16, 2008 @ 5:47am]

Letter Re: Comments on "Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse"

Sun, 16 Nov 2008 05:45:20 +0000

Dear Sir:
Recently I acquired a copy of your novel "Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse". I have read a few works of survivalist fiction in my time, your book is one of the few that I could honestly say I would be happy to read again and again. There aren't many books I could say that about

A little background here, I'm a former Royal Marine originally from England and now I live in Northern Ireland. There isn't much of a survivalist movement here in the UK so I consider myself to be in a minority! I also write survival manuals in my spare time (which I don't have much of lately) and I follow the word of the bible regarding preparing for the unforeseen. Far too often I have watched the news of some disaster and seen people stood with their hands out begging for help and expecting it from the government. Last year there was widespread flooding in the South of England, and I recall seeing several people on the news complaining that they had no clean drinking water. If I had been in this situation, I have about 200 gallons of potable water in store, and then I also have something like a years supply of purifying tablets, and a number of filters. When those run out, its the old fashioned way, boiling.

I grew up in an ethnically diverse community, and went to school with Asian, Oriental and Afro-Caribbean kids, so its quite refreshing to see you have added a blend of races in the characters. All too often, survivalists are labeled 'Racist', 'Anti-semitic', or 'White Supremacist'. Your character 'Kevin Lendel' reminded me somewhat of the character Paul Rubenstein in 'The Survivalist' series of novels, [by Jerry Ahern] which were in fact the first survivalist fiction I ever read.

I found the information in the book to be quite useful and it has taken me in new directions with regard to my supplies and techniques. Some of the gear your characters store is however pretty hard to come by in the UK. When reading of the guys using ALICE packs, this brought back memories of the ALICE pack I used to have a few years ago, and I spent most of the next few days on eBay trying to find a large one in a usable condition. Now I've found one, I just need to get the cash together to buy it. Best wishes, - Steve

[via http://www.survivalblog.com/ @ November 16, 2008 @ 5:45am]

The Foundation of Basic Preparedness, by Doc Gary

Sun, 16 Nov 2008 01:24:36 +0000

Much has been written on The Blog concerning the 4 G’s, getting right with God, Ground, Grub and Guns. I believe that another “G” exists for most, if not all, of us and that is “Group”. The family unit is the original group and the most basic. This is not to say that individuals cannot go it alone. Man, however, is a social creature and survives best (biology aside) with others.

We have faced the challenge of preparedness as a family. The issues are, of course, the same as for anyone like-minded. Most issues have to do with mind-set, some with tangibles.

For us the challenge is essentially a two-edged sword. On what could be considered the downside, we have to take care of the whole family. There is the added responsibility for the other family members, especially those too young to accept adult responsibilities or too old to accomplish strenuous activities or other challenges. Additional supplies must be laid in to account for all. Ours is a large family, 9 children at home, age 6 to 23 years. All efforts must be multiplied accordingly, then each member’s specific needs considered. Are there individual health problems? Will physical size matter for whatever is at hand? Which of the family members cannot reliably handle such things as weapons, driving, etc? Do some members actually require a significant effort spent on their behalf to survive?

The upside to a (large) family is division of activities. The old saying goes, “Many hands make light work.” That is certainly true in our family, where responsibility is met fairly head-on. Because of this division of labor, we can actually accomplish multiple tasks concurrently and fairly efficiently. The head of the household, although ultimately responsible, cannot hope to “do it all” and must depend on others to share the responsibility. This not only unburdens the head, but also furthers maturity in the other family members; it gives them self-worth, for they are depended upon. Even the youngest and the elderly can be given tasks that fall within their capabilities, thus giving them the satisfaction of being a contributing member.

Being a family means that we all are in touch at least daily. Good communication is stressed. We try and avoid emotionally-charged “conversation” and instead share information. The former tends to create division, the latter one-mindedness (togetherness). Anger and hurt feelings can be dealt with in private with one or both parents, instead of being expressed publicly in a relationship-damaging manner. Openness and truthfulness are encouraged and expected. Venues which encourage communication are, for us, meal-times and prayer times. Occasionally, a family meeting is called. Actually, any time throughout the day is considered appropriate depending on the information or need. As both parents work at home, availability is rarely a problem.

Being a functional family doesn’t mean that we exclude others. It actually opens our hearts to include others, integrate them in and help them to feel a “belonging”. We have “adopted” many into our family; they know that they are always welcome. They can call, show up, or even stay any time they want or need. Most will either ask what to do or just chip in and help when they see a need. Others will come and hang around while this one or that one works; when that occurs they are usually handed something to do to allow them to feel needed. They all return to join us again.

We have adopted a simple team approach as our organizational model. The Team is us, or whoever is grouped together for a common goal (the Mission). A Team Leader is recognized and all of the rest are Team Members. The Team Leader is ultimately responsible for the Mission and the Team. The Team Leader is considered the “ultimate servant” for the Team, making certain that all needs are met and that the Mission proceeds. Each Team Member has skills and responsibilities on which the Team is dependent. If, for example, 4 family members go to the store for a particular purpose (mission), then a Team Leader is recognized for that situation and all act accordingly, usually by dividing the activity into manageable parts and accomplishing each. The beauty is that all function together without establishing rank, but still with a functioning head to guide the overall Mission. Each member of the Team is responsible for the other members. Sometimes we use a “buddy” system that pairs the oldest with the youngest, the next oldest with the next youngest, and so forth, to insure that all are accounted for and none left out or behind.

To further this team concept, we have divided areas of preparedness into individual teams. For example, we have a Resources Team that gathers information regarding provisions on hand and those needed. This Team has a Team Leader responsible for keeping the group goal-focused and reporting to the overall (family) Team Leader. Recommendations are made and information shared. We have 6 of these Teams that cover the areas necessary for us to become and remain prepared.

The Team practices Operational Security (OPSEC) at all times. There are neighbors, friends, and even relatives who would not understand what preparedness involves. The Team has no desire to exclude anyone; however, we do recognize that information shared even innocuously can be detrimental to the Mission and the Team. Even the 6 year old is taught to say “Dad is not available”, instead of “Dad is not here”. We try to put feelers out in conversations with others by asking, “Where do you think the country is headed in the next 5 years?” This approach generally reveals who we might discuss things further with and those we cannot.

What counters the effectiveness of the Team is undermining the Mission or the Team Leader, complaining, slacking duties, or avoidance of responsibility. We have found that the tongue is the single worst enemy of the Team. Using words to counter, control, demand, whine, or denigrate defocuses the individual and the group. The Mission has to be set aside to deal with rebellion, passivity, or other manifestations. The ramifications of “one bad apple” are farther reaching than one would suspect. The influence of corrupt speech on Team members is viral. The way we deal with it? First, we as a group recognize it for what it is and then deal with it accordingly. Usually, just bringing it to light is sufficient. Again, good communication is the key.

Likely, this sounds extremely militaristic; however, in the context of a family, it is not. Once we altered our mindset to one of cooperative sharing and recognized the need for a system whereby we could accomplish the most, it was easily the best system. The benefits are that the most is accomplished for the least effort, everyone feels worth-while and has a sense of belonging (even the 6 year old), and we all take care of each other. The foundation for our Team is God. We recognize God is love and we define love as the laying down of self for someone else. Selflessness defines the Team Leader, as well as the Team Members.

What’s next for those who have accomplished group organization (a Team)? All you do from here is buy the right stuff, get the right training, and stick together. Post-TEOTWAWKI, the Team will continue its basic functioning with a revised Mission. Whereas the pre- Mission is preparedness; the post- Mission is survival.

[via http://www.survivalblog.com/ @ November 16, 2008 @ 1:24am]

Letter Re: Criminal Gangs in TEOTWAWKI -- Understanding a Potential Threat

Sun, 16 Nov 2008 01:21:56 +0000

Sir,

I have one minor correction to Ryan's excellent article. This quote is seriously out of date: "Outlaw motorcycle gangs rule the distribution of meth." I beg to differ: the Mexican cartels now rule the distribution of meth. In the 1980s, the biker gangs employed some of the Mexican gangs to produce meth to avoid the repeated law enforcement arrests of its very visible members. Then in the 1990s the Mexicanns expanded out of the biker's control and the biker gangs bought Meth from the Mexicans to redistribute. Why? Less LEO (law enforcement officer) detection an much less expensive meth. In the 1990s, California saw a massive upsurge in the number of large-scale Mexican meth labs. We saw labs capable of producing up to 800 pounds of Mexican-style meth at a time, and seized several labs a week. The Fresno County area was a hotbed of activity. With the regulation of ephedrine (ephedra), and later, pseudoephedrine (which is the main chemical in meth, called Mua Huang in Chinese, China being the primary supplier of this critical precursor) in California, and then elsewhere, the meth lab crisis moved further east as meth, and crystal meth/ Ice (purified meth, over 80% purity, about 4 lbs of meth required to make 1 lb of Ice, Ice being hugely profitable in Hawaii and elsewhere in the Pacific), started to supplant cocaine and rolled over communities with its near-instantly addictive nature.

The pendulum has somewhat swung back to California, due to its close proximity to the border and the relative ease of crossing over. Make no mistake, the Mexican cartels make the Outlaw Biker Gangs look like kids playing dress up. The Mexican cartels rob each other, execute home invasions on other drug dealers to steal their product and profits, kidnap drug dealers or family members for debts owed or ransom, rat out their competition (and have signed up as informants to clear out competitors), kill defendant cooperators and their families, and pay cartel members (and their families in Mexico), if arrested, to quietly do their time instead of cooperating with law enforcement. Most Mexican cartel members don't stand out and try to appear to be poor migrant workers, and thus blend into most urban environments, or receive scant notice on the freeways in cheap sedans traveling north with product. Few Mexican cartel drug proceeds are spent in the US or invested in money making/laundering businesses that would cause Suspicious Activity Reports (SARs) to be filed by banking institutions. No permanently successful cartel members drive fancy cars registered to them, or live in spacious houses they own, or wear colors or tattoos, or dress conspicuously. The higher up in the organization, the less likely that person will ever step foot in the US, running all their operations from Mexico. All trusted members have family or village connections. All narcotics proceeds are shipped out to Mexico via whatever means, reversing the direction the finished product made on its run north. Cartel-run auto body shops make hidden compartments with complicated access switches used to gain access. These compartments can be made airtight, which reduces storage capacity but can often fool narcotics K-9s. These hidden compartments can be easily converted in the most basic vehicle, and are not a bad idea for any prepper wanting hiding some of their more precious TEOTWAWKI supplies. (A note of caution: do this work yourself, don't want to catch the wrong sort of attention, of either law enforcement or home invaders). You can hide hundreds of pounds/kilos of whatever in bigger vehicles in all sorts of places, from the outside roof/ceiling, down to inside the tires, from dashboards to airbags to doors to gas tanks to floorboards to engine compartments to bumpers to seat backs. We have seized hundreds of pounds of narcotics from small sedans. This is what I have seen, in nearly 20 years in aw enforcement.

The Mexican Mafia is a very real, hidden threat, and also viciously, intelligently run. One can only imagine what their structure might look like once TEOTWAWKI hits and the movement away from narcotics occurs. Look for the Golden Horde and its hangers-on to have one more layer behind and interspersed with them.

You are the best resource out there, Jim. Please don't stop posting SurvivalBlog. Sincerely, - D.M.

[via http://www.survivalblog.com/ @ November 16, 2008 @ 1:21am]